汶川8.0级大震的余震最大强度用科里奥利力效应方法的判定

Derterminatin of the Largest Aftershock of Wenchuan MS8.0 Earthquake in 2008 by the Coriolis Force Effect

摘要:

用科里奥利力效应预测强余震是一种震源物理的方法。回顾2008年汶川8.0级大震时用该方法判定余震最大强度的过程，半定性与综合判定为可能发生的最大余震强度为6.5级左右，实际发生了6.4级地震，与主震震级相差大于1级（M_主—M_余=1.6）。验证结果进一步说明该方法的科学性，给科里奥利力效应判定余震增加了一个可靠的判例。

Abstract:

Predicting strong aftershocks with Coriolis force is a method of seismic source physics and it was put forward by GUO Zengjian in 1992.This paper reviews the process of predicting the largest aftershock of 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake by using this method.We concluded that the largest aftershock might be M_S 6.5 by qualitative and synthetical judgment.The actual situation is that the largest aftershock is M_S 6.4,and the magnitude difference between the main shock and the largest aftershock is bigger than 1.The verification results further illustrate the scientificity of the method and add an effective example for the Coriolis force effect.