主成分分析法在辽宁地区地震预测中的应用

Application of Primary Components Analysis Method to Earthquake Prediction in Liaoning Province

摘要:

采用多因子分析的主成分分析法,选择与地震活动强度有关的地震频次N(ML≥3.0)、b值、η值、Mf值、A(b)值和Ac值等6个参量进行分析,实现对上述参量的有效约简,得到反映地震强度特征的综合指标W。发现指标W在辽宁海城7.3级、岫岩5.4级地震前出现明显的异常变化,震后恢复。表明综合指标W可以较好的反映地震活动的异常特征。

Abstract:

Using the primary components analysis method,six main parameters for indicating seismicity strenth such as frequency N（ML≥3.0）,b value,η value,A（b） value,Mf value,Ac-value are selected to analyse.The parameters are simplified effectively and a new synthetic index W for indicating seismicity strenth is obtained.It is found that the index W appeared obvious anomalies before Haicheng MS7.3 earthquake in 1975 and Xiuyan MS5.4 earthquake in Liaoning province,and returned after events.It is shown that the synthetic index W can reflect anomalous characterisitic of seiemicity well.