地震预警(报)系统及减灾效益研究

ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION (WARNING) SYSTEM AND ITS DISASTER REDUCTION BENEFIT

摘要:

简要阐述了地震预警(报)系统(利用震灾区某点相对震中区地震波的走时差来进行预警)的设计原理,并从理论上分析了其在减少人员伤亡方面的功效,8级左右大震其减少人员伤亡率P可达到70%以上.进一步的分析计算还发现,震害损失和地震预警(报)系统减少人员伤亡率P_i的极大值均不在高烈度区和低烈度区,而是在中等烈度区.

Abstract:

The principle of the earthquake prediction (warning) system is introduced and the system effect of reducing the injuries and deaths is analyzed and the ratio of reducing injuries and deaths (P value) may be beyond 70% in the M_S8 earthquake.It is found that the maximum of the seismic hazard and P value are in the middle intensity area,and not in the higher and the lower intensity areas.