南黄海地区强震趋势预测

PREDICTION FOR TREND OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE SOUTHERN YELLOW SEA AREA

摘要:

对南黄海地区1846年以来M_S ≥ 6强震活动的可公度性进行了分析.发现该区强震活动具有6 a、12 a和57 a的基本周期,此外还有63 a、69 a和75 a的周期.根据强震活动的可公度性特征和丛集特征,对南黄海地区未来M_S ≥ 6地震活动趋势进行了预测,并对预测结果进行了论证.

Abstract:

Commensurable characteristics of activity of M_S ≥ 6 earthquakes in the southern Yellow Sea area since 1846 are analysed.There are major periods of 6 years,12 years and 57 years and periods of 63 years,69 years and 75 years besides in activity of strong earthquakes of the area.Based on commensurable and clustered characteristics of activity of strong earthquakes,the trend of strong earthquakes in the area in future is forecasted.The forecasting results are proved.