自组织临界现象和重整化群方法在中期地震预报中的应用研究

STUDY ON PHENOMENON OF SELF-ORGANlZED CRITICALITY AND RENORMALIZATION GROUP THEORY FOR MID-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

摘要:

本文讨论了大震前的自组织临界现象,认为在大地震发生前地壳处于自组织临界状态。不同规模的地震反映地壳中不同尺度裂隙的产生或扩展。设p₀,p₁,…,p_n是不同尺度岩石块体中产生或扩展裂隙的概率,根据重整化群理论,数列{p₀,p₁,…,p_n}有极限。其极限值可能是0或1。选定一个临界值p^*,如果p₀>p^*,则p_n→1;反之,若p₀*,则p_n→0。在地震平静期内,必有p₀*,而在地震活跃期内,p₀>p^*。在本文中,作者根据地震资料研究了青藏高原北部地区的临界概率p^*值,得到大震前p₀值大约为0.3-0.8,平静期p₀约为0.1-0.2,所以p^*值约为0.2-0.3。利用重整化群模型给出了p^*为0.2324,预报期限为3年。

Abstract:

Earthquakes withdiverse sizes show the form or extension of diverse size fractures in the crust which is in a self-organized state. Let P₀,P₁,…,P_n be the probability of the form or ex-tension of fracture in diverse size rock bodies with certain scales. According to renormalization group theory,sequence {P₀,P₁,…,P_n} has a limit that may be 0 or 1,and if P₀=P₁=…=P_n, the limit will get the constant(P^*)。The P^* is a critical value,and if P₀>P^* then P_n approaches to 1;if P₀*, P_n approaches to 0.
P₀ can be determined by statistics of earthquake catalogue. There should be P₀* during the earthquake quiet period,and P₀>P^* during the active,therefore,P^* can be determined as the value between the quiet period P₀ and the active P₀.Based on the conclution,a lot of renor-malization medels may be calculated and a model that its P^* is within the range is choosen to gain a exact P^* value. To predict earthquake,the P₀ is worked out using recent data and judged if P₀>P^* not.
The data were calculated in northern district of Qinghai-Xizang plateau and the P₀ is about 0.3-0.8 before strong earthquakes,while it is about 0.1-0.2 during quiet. Therefore,the P^* is about 0.2-0.3 and the medel that was choosen gives a exact P^* as 0.2324.
By this train of thought,a new way to predict strong earthquake is established.