中国大震临震突变异常总体特征和临震预报指标的研究

THE WHOLE CHARACTERISTICS AND THE PREDICTING INDICES OF SUDDEN ANOMALIES OF IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE FOR MEGSEISMS IN CHINA

摘要:

本文对我国1969年以来所发生11次大震的各种前兆临震突变异常和趋势性背景异常做了统计分析,并对大震前突发性异常的总体特征、临震突变项次随时间(突变日距发震日的间隔天数)分布规律、临震异常综合判断方法等几个问题进行了讨论,深入探讨了大震的临震预报综合指标和有效性时间预报。

Abstract:

In this paper, sudden anomalies of impending earthquake and obvious trend anomalies are analyzed statistically for eleven earthquakes(M ≥ 7.0) from 1969 to 1900 in China. The whole characteristics of sudden anomalies before the megaseisms, the distributing rules of the item-and-frequency with time(the interval from the sudden change date to the earthquake occurrence date), the synthetic distinguishing method of imminent anomalies etc. are discussed. The synthetie indices of imminent prediction for great earthquakes and the effectiveness of time prediction are further discussed.