预测水库诱发地震的两个数学模式
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TWO MATHEMATIC MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF RESERVOIR INDUCED SEISMICITY
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    摘要:

    近几十年来,特别是近二十年来,随着人类工程活动的规模和领域的扩大,出现了伴生的新问题——诱发地震。水库蓄水、小规模的地面或地下采矿、处理废液、地热发电和石油开采及城市大量抽取地下水以及地下核爆破等都造成局部地震活动增强。由于诱发地震是伴随大型工程而发生的,且多发生于大型工程附近,所以即使5级左右的地震也应予以考虑。
    国内外学者对水库地震的预测提出过许多方法。本文介绍了预测水库地震的统计检验预测模式和两级模糊综合评判模式,并用实际水库震例进行了检验。

    Abstract:

    With the expansion of human engineering activity both in scale and in sphere, there appears an accompaning new problem——induced seismicity in these decades especially in the last two decades. Many activities would intensify seismicity, such as impoundmen water in reservoir, large scale opencut mining and underground mining 9 waste liquid disposal,geothermal power generation as well as filling of high pressure water into the ground for a second time of petrolium exploitation, large scale drawing of underground water in cities and the post effect of underground nuclear detonation, ets. Since induced seismicity are accompanying engineering projects and occur near the large engineering projects triggering them, obvious social and ecnomic consequences would be incurred.therefore even as weak as M=5 magnitude, an earthquake has to be taken into account. Among various kinds of induced seismicity already known, reservoir induced seismicity (usually called reservoir earthquake) is most worth heeding. The Xinfengjiang Reservoir in China, the Kremasta Reservoir in Greese, the Kariba Reservoir in the border area between Zambia and Zinbabwe and the Koyna in India, all had triggered strong earthquakes of more than 6 magnitude one after another in 1960s, and such earthquake is most serious in Xinfengjiang and Koyna.

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常宝琦.预测水库诱发地震的两个数学模式[J].地震工程学报,1987,9(1):86-102. Chang Baoqi. TWO MATHEMATIC MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF RESERVOIR INDUCED SEISMICITY[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,1987,9(1):86-102.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-06-24