复杂震源系统非线性阶段的多层次性及大震的中、短、临预报(二)

THE MULTIPLE LEVELS OF NON-LINEAR STAGE FOR THE COMPLEX FOCUS SYSTEM AND THE MODERATE-SHORT TERM PREDICTION OF LARGE EARTHOUAKES

摘要:

本文是《复杂震源系统的非线性阶段和大地震予报》[1]一文的续文。主要应用现代统计物理学中分数维的观点[2、3]论述复杂震源系统非线性阶段的多层次性以及不同层次间的自相似无限镶嵌特征。根据这一特征利用测震学指标中有明确显示的蠕变曲线突然加速的拐点得到的第一个非线性层次可逐级推算其以下的各非线性层次,其推算公式为:
T₂^(a)=T₂⁽¹⁾/C^a,n=1、2、3…
式中C为某一地区孕震时间T与第一层次非线性时段T₂⁽¹⁾之比,这是一个统计值,是根据不同地区的大震统计得到的,C值基本上稳定在5左右。根据上面的公式求得的各非线性层次以及所伴随的前兆异常可进行比较确定的中期和短临地震预报。

Abstract:

This Paper continues to 《The Non-Linear Stage for the complex Focus System and the Prediction of Large Earthquakes》^[1]. By means of the fractor in contemporary statistics physics,^[2][3]the paper deals with the Similar unlimited mosaic properties of the different stratification planes and the multiple levels of non-linear stage for the complex focus system. From this, according to the acceleration of the obvious creep in seismometry, the first non-linear layer is obtained, and every layer can be calculated, The certain non-linear time interval is:
T₂^(a)=T₂⁽¹⁾/C^a,n=1、2、3…
where C is the ratio between T, the time of earthquake preparation in some area and T₂^[1], the non-linear time interval of the first layet. This is a statistical quantity. The statistics of the document^[1] shows that as to the large earthquakes in different areas, C value is fixed at about 5. The ratio of every non-linear layet and the accompanied precursary abnormalities of unstability obtained according to the above formula, can give a definite prediction of earthquake for moderate and short terms.