2023年沙雅M6.1地震和塔吉克斯坦 M7.2地震热红外异常研究

Thermal infrared anomalies prior to the Shaya M 6.1and Tajikistan M 7.2 earthquakes in 2023

摘要:

文章基于相对功率谱方法对2023年1月30日沙雅 M 6.1地震和2月23日塔吉克斯坦 M 7.2地震前热红外相对功率谱时空演化特征进行研究。结果表明:(1)2022年9月9日开始,新疆地区出现大面积热红外异常,共持续44 d,在异常开始后的143 d和167 d即发生这两次地震,沙雅地震位于热红外高值区边缘,塔吉克斯坦地震距离最近的异常区约200 km;(2)沙雅地震震中功率谱高值呈现“单峰式”变化,塔吉克斯坦地震震中高值呈现“双峰式”波动变化,并且高值持续时间更长;(3)通过震例梳理,发现当新疆地区出现大面积热红外相对功率谱异常时,其后6个月内,在异常区边缘及附近地区存在发生6.5级以上地震的可能,优势发震时间为3个月。

Abstract:

Based on the relative power spectrum method, this work analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of thermal infrared anomalies before the Shaya M 6.1 earthquake in Xinjiang, China, on January 30, 2023, and the Tajikistan M 7.2 earthquake on February 23, 2023. From September 9, 2022, a large area of thermal infrared anomalies occurred in Xinjiang, lasting 44 days. The two earthquakes occurred 143 days and 167 days after the beginning of the anomalies, respectively. The Shaya earthquake occurred at the edge of the thermal infrared high-value area, and the Tajikistan earthquake was approximately 200 km from the nearest anomaly area. The high-value area of the relative power spectrum at the epicenter of the Shaya earthquake exhibits a single-peak curve, while that at the epicenter of the Tajikistan earthquake exhibits a double-peak curve and lasts longer. Based on the two earthquake cases, it is postulated that when a large area of thermal infrared relative power spectrum anomalies occurs in Xinjiang, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher may occur at the edge of the anomaly area or in adjacent areas within the following six months, and the most possible occurrence time is within three months.