设定情景下的地震避难场所需求估算研究——以天津市河东区为例

Demand estimation of emergency shelters based on setting earthquake scenarios: a case study of Hedong District, Tianjin City

摘要:

地震应急避难场所是提高地震灾害风险防治能力的一个关键环节,然而,现有的地震避难场所需求人数估计方法却难以满足当前精细化地震灾害风险防治需要。为此,以天津市河东区为例,提出一种基于精细基础数据的地震避难需求分析方法。首先,根据精细建筑物数据,进行人口空间化;然后,基于单体建筑物数据,提出三种不同地震强度设定情景下临时和长期避难人数的计算方法;最后,在研究区验证所提方法的可行性,并给出相应场景下避难场所需求能力的估计结果。研究结果表明,当遭受相当于设防烈度和罕遇烈度的地震作用时,研究区内现有的临时避难场所和长期避难场所均无法满足应急避难需求。

Abstract:

Earthquake emergency shelters are crucial for improving the ability to prevent and control earthquake disaster risks. However, existing methods for estimating the demand for these shelters often fall short of addressing the current needs for earthquake disaster risk prevention and control. This study proposes a new method for estimating emergency shelter demand, using the Hedong District of Tianjin City as a case study. The method is based on fine-grained and fundamental data. Initially, the population was spatialized using detailed building data. Subsequently, calculation methods were developed to estimate the number of temporary and long-term evacuees under three earthquake scenarios with different seismic intensities, all based on single building data. The feasibility of this method was verified in the study area, and the corresponding estimation results for emergency shelter demand were presented for the three earthquake scenarios. The results show that the existing temporary and long-term shelters in the study area are insufficient to meet the needs in the event of earthquakes with fortification intensity and rare intensity.