强震大尺度有序图像预测法及其应用研究
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1.中国地震局第二监测中心;2.青海省地震局

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Large scale ordered image prediction method for strong earthquakes and its application research
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1.Second Monitoring Center, China Earthquake Administration;2.Qinghai Earthquake Agency

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    摘要:

    在系统总结汶川8.0级、玉树7.1级等地震前大尺度有序图像演化过程的基础上,系统研究了1952以来青藏块体大尺度有序图像的特征及其与区域7级地震或地震组的关系,得出大尺度有序图像是一种具有动力学含义的地震活动图像,在青藏块体7级地震或地震组前普遍存在,对7级地震或地震组以及5级以上地震活动主体地区的判定具有中期预测意义,进一步总结提炼了强震大尺度有序图像预测法。2021年玛多7.4级地震前青藏块体5级以上地震大尺度有序图像的演化过程,检验和验证了上述结论及大尺度有序图像预测法的有效性。

    Abstract:

    On the basis of system summarizing the evolution process of large-scale ordered images before earthquakes such as Wenchuan 8.0 and Yushu 7.1, the characteristics of large-scale ordered images of the Qinghai Tibet block and the relationship between earthquakes and seismic groups with a magnitude of 7 in the region since 1952 are systematically researched. The large-scale ordered image is a seismic activity image with dynamic significance, It is commonly present before the magnitude 7 earthquake or seismic group in the Qinghai Tibet block, has medium-term predictive significance for determining areas with earthquakes of magnitude 7 or seismic groups and the region with seismic activity of magnitude 5 or above. Further summarizing and refining the large-scale ordered image prediction method for strong earthquakes. The evolution process of large-scale ordered images of earthquakes of magnitude 5 and above in the Qinghai Tibet block before the Maduo 7.4 earthquake in 2021, test and validate the above conclusions and the effectiveness of the large-scale ordered image prediction method.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-08
  • 最后修改日期:2024-04-29
  • 录用日期:2024-06-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-06-13