区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估研究进展和展望
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白仙富(1979-),男,博士,高级工程师,主要从事山地灾害防治与环境保育、地震滑坡灾害风险评估基础理论与关键技术研究。E-mail:xf_bai520@163.com。

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地震科技星火计划攻关项目(XH22005C、XH23003C);云南省重点研发计划(202203AC100003);云南省2023年中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目;中国地震局地质研究所基本科研业务专项(IGCEA2106)


Research progress and prospect of the quantitative evaluation of regional earthquake-induced landslide disasters
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    摘要:

    地震滑坡是最常见的地震次生地质灾害之一,不仅带来环境恶化,通常还造成严重的人员伤亡和财产损失,因此备受关注。为了解地震滑坡研究发展趋势,凝练地震滑坡定量评估科学问题,文章对区域地震滑坡定量评估起源、发展现状、存在的问题及未来发展进行了系统总结。研究结果表明:(1)区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估研究兴起于20世纪80年代,经过50多年学者的不懈努力,取得了丰硕的成果。区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估研究面临着新的社会需求。(2)地震滑坡是地震动力、地质特征和地貌条件等多因素耦合作用的结果,地震滑坡现象只有考虑成因机理与动力过程方可解释,地震滑坡成因机理研究主要集中于强震条件下斜坡的动力响应规律分析。(3)地震滑坡发育特征、成因机理以及数据库建设等基础研究推动了地震滑坡灾害风险定量评估研究。区域地震滑坡灾害风险定量评估包括地震滑坡危险性定量评估、地震滑坡易损性定量评估、地震滑坡危害性定量评估等内容。(4)在区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估方面,还需要进一步探索区域地震滑坡灾害形成的系统性和时空分布规律性、改进和完善区域地震滑坡灾害风险定量评估方法、开拓区域地震滑坡灾害防治战略规划。

    Abstract:

    Earthquake-induced landslides are one of the most common secondary geological hazards, and they not only deteriorate the environment but also result in severe casualties and property losses. Therefore, researchers have long been paying attention to this issue. To understand the development trend of studies on seismic landslides and refine scientific issues related to the quantitative evaluation of seismic landslides, this paper systematically summarizes the quantitative evaluation of regional landslides, including their origin, current state of development, existing problems, and prospects. The research findings indicate that (1) studies on quantitative evaluation of regional landslides emerged in the 1980s, and scholars have attained fruitful achievements after more than 50 years of unremitting efforts. To date, new social demands must be met by the quantitative evaluation of regional earthquake landslides. (2) Seismic landslide results from the coupling effect of multiple factors, including dynamics, geological characteristics, and geomorphic conditions. Seismic landslides can only be explained when the causes and dynamic processes are considered. Research on the causes and mechanisms of seismic landslides mainly focuses on the analysis of the dynamic response law of slopes under strong earthquakes. (3) Fundamental studies on development characteristics, causes and mechanisms, and database construction of seismic landslides have promoted research on the quantitative risk evaluation of landslide disasters, which includes the quantitative assessment of the hazard, vulnerability, and harm of seismic landslides. (4) In the quantitative evaluation of regional landslide disasters, it is necessary to further explore the systematic formation and spatiotemporal distribution patterns of regional landslides, improve and refine the methods for quantitative evaluation of regional landslide risks, and explore the strategies and plans for regional landslide disaster prevention and control.

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白仙富,杨志全,胡斌,杨理臣,戴雨芡,杨悦.区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估研究进展和展望[J].地震工程学报,2023,(6):1408-1424. BAI Xianfu, YANG Zhiquan, HU Bin, YANG Lichen, DAI Yuqian, YANG Yue. Research progress and prospect of the quantitative evaluation of regional earthquake-induced landslide disasters[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2023,(6):1408-1424.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-31
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-08