基于居民点密度的人口空间化及在四川九寨沟7.0级地震中的应用

Population Spatialization Research Based on Settlements Density and Its Application in Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan MS7.0 Earthquake

摘要:

采用核密度估计法得到甘肃省村级居民点密度后，运用基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化计算公式获得甘肃省1 000 m×1 000 m的人口密度空间格网图。经检验，格网化结果达到了较高的精度，可满足防震减灾工作对高精度人口分布信息的需求。以四川九寨沟7.0级地震甘肃境内Ⅵ度区为例，利用ArcGIS空间分析功能，将格网人口数据和统计单元人口数据分别与地震烈度进行叠加，对比受灾人口估算结果。研究结果表明，基于公里格网的受灾人口估算方法避免了行政区划分割造成的数据分配错误，能够合理反映行政单元内部的人口分布，从而保证灾情快速评估结果的实际性和有效性。

Abstract:

The density of village settlements is obtained by Kernel density estimation method, and then a 1 000 m×1 000 m grid map of Gansu population density is obtained based on the settlements density. Taking a Ⅵ degree area of Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan M_S7.0 earthquake in Gansu Province as an example, the grid population data and statistical unit population data are overlaid to obtain estimates of earthquake-affected population corresponding with ArcGIS. The results show that the affected population estimate method based on kilometer grid avoids the data allocation error caused by administrative division, and can express the population distribution in the administrative unit, thus ensuring the practicality and effectiveness of the disaster rapid assessment.