长波辐射(OLR)信息预测华北地震的方法研究

Research on Earthquake Prediction Method in North China Using Outgoing-Longwave-Radiation Information

摘要:

利用卫星对地遥测长波辐射(OLR)信息,分析了华北地块OLR信息场的空间分布及其变化特征,结合地震活动分布特点进行了短期预测中强地震判定指标的方法研究。结果表明该方法可对华北地区短期内有无可能发生M5以上的显著地震做出较为明确的诊断。经近一年的实际检验效果良好,对华北地区震情监测预报有实用价值。

Abstract:

Based on the information of OLR （ Outgoing-Longwave-Radiation ） of the satellite telemetry, the spatial distribution and its variation characteristics of the OLR information field in North China are analyzed, and the method for the determination indexes of moderate-strong earthquakes in short-term prediction by combining with seismic activity features is discussed. The result shows that this method may give a specific estimation whether there will be earthquakes with M≥5 in the near future in North China, with good test effectiveness in practice of one year. The method has a practicality for monitoring and forecasting short-term seismic situation in the near future in North China.