关于加卸载响应比理论运用于地震预测的几点思考

SOME CONSIDERATIONS ON THEORY OF LOAD AND UNLOAD RESPONSE RATIO AND ITS APPLICATION IN EATHQUAKE PREDICTION

摘要:

加卸载响应比理论已在地震预测中得到广泛应用,但也面临挑战。本文对加卸载响应比理论及方法进行了分析,并提出该理论几个可能的研究方面:(1)根据固体潮应力变化值给定每个小地震Benioff应变在加卸载响应比计算中的权重;(2)考虑地震之前应力空间分布,确定加卸载响应比可能升高的区域形状,进而确定加卸载响应比计算中小震资料的选取范围;(3)将实测的小震震源机制与假定小震震源机制都相同时的加卸载响应比计算结果进行比较,研究测定的小震震源机制对加卸载响应比方法的改善情况;(4)研究加卸载响应比方法对不同震源机制类型地震的适用情况。

关键词:加卸载响应比;权重;应力分布;震源机制

Abstract:

The theory of Load and Unload Response Ratio (LURR) has applicated in earthquake prediction extensivelly,but it meet challenge also.In this paper,the theory of LURR and its application are analyzed and some aspects for study in near futuer are proposed:(1) Weight of Benioff strain of every small earthquake would be added in LURR calculation according to Coulomb failure stress generated by earth tide; (2) The region shape in where small earthquakes are selected would be determined by the range of LURR would-be-high according to stress distribution before impending large earthquake; (3) By comparing the results of LURR from the assumed same mechanism of small earthquakes and that from measured mechanism of small earthquakes, study the improvement of LURR from using measured data; (4) The applicability of LURR to different seismic fault types of large earthquake would be studied.

Key words:Load and unload response ratio (LURR);Weight;Stress distribution;Focal mechanism