Abstract:The prediction model of permanent displacement, mainly used to calculate permanent displacement of seismic slope in hazard assessment of regional seismic slope, is based on the Newmark sliding theory, and is obtained by statistical fitting of a large number of measured seismic acceleration records. Aiming at the problem of the shear strength parameters of a sliding surface remaining unchanged in the Newmark theory, and the calculated displacement from the existing prediction model of permanent displacement being less than the measured displacement, two prediction models of displacement, including peak acceleration and Arias intensity, are established using the theory of dynamic critical acceleration. The rationality of the permanent displacement calculated by the model is discussed. It was found that the permanent displacement calculated by the proposed model is close to the actual displacement of an earthquake landslide. The model can solve the present problem wherein the predicted displacement is less than the measured displacement. On the basis of further discussion and development, this model can meet more theoretical applications in engineering practice, and provide new ideas for seismic risk assessment of regional slopes.