泛天山地区MS≥6.6地震时空对称性及趋势分析

Space-Time Symmetry and Tendency Analysis of MS≥6.6 Earthquakes in Pan-Tianshan Mountains

摘要:

利用可公度法、蝴蝶结构图法、可公度结构系和自回归模型对1716年以来泛天山地区M_S≥6.6地震进行了分析。结合震中位置和震源深度的对称性，发现研究区内的强震具有良好的时空对称性，2022—2023年泛天山地区，尤其是2023年7月有（±1月）发生M_S≥6.6地震的可能性，震中位于80°E、41°N西南方区域内的可能性较大。利用时间对称性与自回归模型来提高对称性方法对强震的识别精度和趋势分析的可靠程度，同时把日期精确到了月份，使强震趋势判断研究向前推进。该研究可以深化地震韵律与地震连续规律的认识，丰富地理时空规律认识。

Abstract:

In this study, we use the commensurability method, butterfly structure diagram method, commensurable structure, and autoregressive algorithm model to analyze the M_S≥ 6.6 earthquakes in Pan-Tianshan Mountains since 1716. Combined with the symmetry of the epicenter location and focal depth, results show that the strong earthquakes in the study area have a good space-time symmetry. A M_S≥ 6.6 earthquake is more likely to occur in Pan-Tianshan Mountains on years 2022-2023, especially in July 2023 (±1 month), and the epicenter is more likely to locate in the southwestern region of 80°E and 41°N. In this study, time symmetry and autoregressive model are used to improve the identification accuracy of the symmetry method and tendency analysis of strong earthquakes. The date is accurate to the month, advancing the judgment of strong earthquake tendency.