Abstract:Earthquakes are a type of major natural disaster that result in serious casualties and property losses. Seismic hazard analysis is one of the main modules in the seismic catastrophe model. Traditional probabilistic analyses of seismic hazard are based on the potential source model, seismicity model, and ground motion attenuation model, which use the probability method to determine the seismic hazard of the target site. This hazard represents the combined effect of all earthquakes on the site. However, the effect of a single seismic event on the site should be used in seismic risk analyses based on the earthquake catastrophe model, so the potential focal area must be converted into a series of individual seismic events. In this study, based on the potential focal area and seismicity model adopted in the fifth seismic ground motion parameters of China’s zonation map, we used the Monte Carlo method to simulate the seismic event set that conforms to the time, space, and intensity distribution characteristics of seismic activity in China. In the simulation of seismic events, the basic theory states that the occurrence time of earthquakes follows a Poisson distribution, the magnitude distribution is described by the Gutenberg-Richard law, and the spatial distribution is described by the potential focal area and the earthquake occurrence rate. The simulated earthquake events included the following parameters: time (year, month, and day), location (longitude, latitude), depth, magnitude, fault strike, and attenuation characteristics. The results show that this simulated seismic event set can meet the requirements of seismic hazard analysis in the seismic catastrophe model.
