基于Logistic回归模型的黄土斜坡地震稳定性快速评判方法

Quick Assessment of the Seismic Stability of LoessSlopes Based on a Logistic Regression Model

摘要:

黄土地震滑坡是陇西地区黄土丘陵地区的主要地质灾害之一，快速评价黄土斜坡的地震稳定性是陇西地区工程建设规划选址以及地震应急救援的需求。在野外调查及遥感解译获取坡高H、坡角α及估计烈度值I的基础上，运用逻辑回归分析方法，拟合得到研究区黄土斜坡地震稳定性的快速评价经验公式，经回判、判别校验及实例判别应用证明，该经验公式适用于快速评估陇西地区内黄土斜坡的地震稳定性。该文提出的方法对黄土地区城市建设规划和地震应急救援有重要的应用价值。

Abstract:

Seismic loess landslides are one of the main geological disasters in the Longxi area. A method to quickly evaluate seismic stability of loess slopes is necessary for large-scale site selection and earthquake emergency response in the study region. On the basis of a field survey and remote sensing interpretation, the slope height H, slope angle α, and estimated intensity value I, were obtained. Using the logistic regression analysis method, an empirical formula for quickly evaluating the seismic stability of loess slopes was obtained. Through back-judgment, validations, and application in real cases, it can be concluded that the formula proposed in this study is suitable for quickly evaluating the seismic stability of loess slopes in the Longxi area.