中国大陆几次强地震长波辐射异常分析
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中国地震局星火计划(XH17039)


Anomalies in Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation for Several Strong Earthquakes in Mainland China
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    摘要:

    大地震前存在长波辐射异常已被许多震例所证实,为进一步分析强地震前的长波辐射异常变化特征,提取其异常的判定指标。以多年静止卫星长波辐射资料(OLR)为基础,应用小波变换和功率谱估计方法对中国大陆6级以上地震进行分析研究。结果表明,6次强地震前三个月内均出现不同程度的长波辐射异常现象,与以前震例分析结果较为一致。空间上在震中及其附近区域异常整体呈现开始-增强-极值-减弱-消失过程,异常最大值时大于多年均值的1倍标准偏差的范围面积达数万到十几万km2,异常最大值时相对功率谱幅值均在10倍以上;时间上震中附近小区域相对功率谱幅值持续偏离多年均值的1倍标准偏差,持续偏离时间介于40~75天。这些强地震的异常判定指标具有短期预测指示意义。

    Abstract:

    The existence of outgoing long-wave radiation anomalies before great earthquakes has been confirmed many times. To further analyze abnormal changes in long-wave radiation before strong earthquakes, determination indeces of long-wave radiation anomalies were extracted. Based on outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data from geostationary satellite data, the wavelet transform and power spectrum estimation were applied to analyze the OLR anomalies from several strong earthquakes in Mainland China. Results indicated that the anomalous amplitude of OLR increased to different degrees within three months of six strong earthquakes. Results were consistent with those of previous earthquake cases. Anomalies in the epicenter and surrounding area presented the normal process of "start, enhance, maximum, weaken, and disappear." When the anomaly reached its maximum value, areas with anomalies >1×standard deviation of the annual average value reached tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands km2. Amplitudes of relative power spectra were >10×standard deviation. In addition, amplitudes of relative power spectra in the epicenter and vicinity were >1×standard deviation from the annual average value in a period of 40~75 days. The anomalies characteristic of these strong earthquakes were indicative of short-term predictions.

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郭晓,邹锐,张璇,王莹.中国大陆几次强地震长波辐射异常分析[J].地震工程学报,2019,41(5):1221-1227,1250. GUO Xiao, ZOU Rui, ZHANG Xuan, WANG Ying. Anomalies in Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation for Several Strong Earthquakes in Mainland China[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2019,41(5):1221-1227,1250.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-06-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-10-08