基于移动通信大数据的地震灾区人口伤亡获取与评估系统设计

Design of the Population Casualty Acquisition and Evaluation System in Earthquake Disaster Areas Based on Mobile Communication Big Data

摘要:

针对现有评估系统存在评估准确性低、耗时长以及稳定性差的问题，提出并设计基于移动通信大数据的地震灾害人口伤亡评估系统。给出系统总体架构，结合移动通信大数据，设计震害数据采集、数据传输、人口伤亡评估以及数据统计分析等硬件模块，完成地震灾害人口伤亡数据的采集和数据统计。将第一次定位数据与经过震中烈度和当地人口密度系数修正后，得到的地震数据相比较，基于前后两次定位，若定位后数据不变，可以认定为受伤或者受困，甚至死亡，将第二次定位数据根据键-值的模式排列在表格之内，实现大数据的存储和分析，运用线性回归的原理，构建地震人员伤亡评估模型，完成地震灾害人口伤亡评估系统设计。实验结果表明，该系统评估结果较为准确，与实际评估结果拟合度较高，且该系统评估时效性较好，表明该系统具有一定可行性。

Abstract:

To solve the problems in the existing evaluation system, i.e., low evaluation accuracy, long time consumption, and poor stability, a seismic disaster casualty assessment system based on mobile communication big data is proposed and designed. The overall system architecture is first given; then, combined with the mobile communication big data, hardware modules, including systems for seismic damage data acquisition, data transmission, population injury assessment, and data statistical analysis, are designed. Finally, the acquisition and data statistics of the population casualties of earthquake disasters are completed. The first positioning data are compared with the seismic data after the correction of the epicenter intensity and local population density coefficient. If the positioning data remain unchanged, the casualty can be regarded as injured or trapped, or even dead. According to the key-value pattern, the second positioning data are arranged in a table to store and analyze the big data. Using the principle of linear regression, the earthquake casualty assessment model is constructed, and the earthquake disaster population casualty assessment system is designed. The experimental results show that the system evaluation result is accurate, and the fitting degree with the actual evaluation results is high, indicating that the system has a certain feasibility.