强震前地震时空相关特征研究

Space-Time Relative Characteristics of SeismicActivity before Strong Earthquakes

摘要:

首先，基于强震前地震活动时间变异系数与b值之间具有相关性，对我国四十次6.5级以上强震震例的震前地震活动时空相关特征作讨论。其次，尝试利用相关过程中"第一阶段"的特性来预测未来强震三要素，给出了预测时间、震级的经验公式。最后，对相关过程"第一阶段"判定的可靠性进行了讨论。

Abstract:

Based on the correlation between the temporal variability coefficient of seismic activity before strong earthquakes and the b-value, the relative characteristics of space and time of 40 strong earthquake cases (M>6.5) are discussed in this paper. The analysis indicated that the correlation coefficient curve has the stage feature, which is caused by the b-value being deviated in the relative temporal stage with stress field variation. Next, the three elements of future strong earthquakes were estimated using the feature of the first stage of the correlation process, and some empirical formulas for predicting time and magnitude are given. Finally, the reliability of the first stage of the correlation process is discussed. The research results of this study were not apparent for small and moderate earthquakes.