灾区震后重建中建筑工程造价快速评估技术研究

A Technique for the Rapid Assessment of Construction Costs in the Reconstruction of Post-earthquake Disaster Areas

摘要:

针对传统方法无法对灾区震后重建中的建筑工程造价进行快速评估的问题，提出适合灾区震后重建的，基于灰色动态预测的建筑工程造价快速评估技术。采用朗格系数法对灾区重建中建筑工程造价进行综合评估分析，确定重建工程造价范围，通过加权平均数指数法对建筑工程造价情况进行判断，构建自回归移动模型防止建筑工程造价评估中受到异常因素影响，分析人工使用费、机械设备使用费、材料使用费，计算项目造价指数，根据基期单方造价与报告期单方造价计算结果，建立灰色动态预测图，实现对灾区震后重建中建筑工程造价快速评估。实验结果表明，采用改进评估技术可在短时间内对灾区震后重建中建筑工程造价进行评估，且评估误差较低，具有一定的优势。

Abstract:

Traditional methods for evaluating reconstruction costs in post-earthquake disaster areas have proven insufficient. Therefore, a technique for the rapid evaluation of such costs, based on gray dynamic prediction, is proposed, which is suitable for application in earthquake disaster areas. The cost of building construction was judged by the weighted average index method, and the autoregressive moving model was constructed to prevent the influence of abnormal factors in the construction cost assessment. Labor costs and the use fee for mechanical equipment and material were analyzed, and the project cost index was calculated. Project cost indices were calculated. Based on the calculated results, the gray dynamic prediction map was drawn to realize the rapid evaluation of construction costs in post-earthquake disaster areas. The experimental results showed that the improved evaluation technique can be used to evaluate the cost of post-earthquake reconstruction in a short period of time. The technique is shown to provide the advantages of low evaluation error.