高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析

Risk Modeling Analysis of Construction Sites under High-intensity Earthquakes

摘要:

在高强度地震环境下，建筑施工场点易发生危险，传统方法运用AHP算法对建筑施工场点的危险性进行分析，但未考虑抗震约束，存在分析效果差的弊端。因此，提出一种高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性建模分析方法。首先采用TOPSIS方法得到地震风险评估指标，构建风险评估指标的物元分析模型，基于AHP-熵权法的组合赋权获取地震风险评估指标的综合权重。然后通过贝叶斯网络来推导高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性参数，运用地震等级的划分标准和推算方法，依据建筑施工场点危险性评估准则和接受原则APLARP，利用物元分析模型中不同危险节点的致因关系和综合权重构建施工场点风险评估模型，完成对高强度地震下建筑施工场点危险性的建模分析。实验结果表明，所设计模型可准确分析高强度地震下建筑施工场点的危险性，能够确保整体施工的安全性，具有重要的应用价值。

Abstract:

Construction sites pose dangers in a high-intensity earthquake environment. The traditional AHP algorithm is often used to analyze the risk of construction sites but provides poor analysis results because it ignores earthquake resistance. Therefore, a risk modeling method for construction sites under high-intensity earthquakes is proposed. First, the TOPSIS method is used to obtain the indexes of earthquake risk assessment, and the matter element analysis model of risk assessment index is constructed. The comprehensive weight of the seismic risk assessment index is obtained on the basis of the combination weighting of the AHP-entropy weight method. Then, the Bayesian network is used to deduce the risk parameters of construction sites under high-intensity earthquakes. A risk assessment model of construction sites is constructed by using the dividing standard and the calculating method of earthquake magnitude in accordance with the risk evaluation criteria and acceptance principle of building construction sites. The model can be used to complete the modeling analysis of the risk of construction sites under high-intensity earthquakes. Experimental results show that the designed model can accurately analyze the hazards of construction sites under high-intensity earthquakes and ensure the safety of the whole construction site. Therefore, the model has important application values.