对2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震的预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 Earthquake

摘要:

2017年8月8日四川九寨沟发生M_S7.0地震。震前我们实验室主要做出以下预测：（1）根据我国强震的空间分布有序性规律，在2015年曾做出预测：甘肃省东南部、四川交界处将来可能会发生8级地震；（2）根据44年周期和7年周期，2016年预测四川区域在2017年会有7.5级地震发生；（3）依据地磁仪器观测到的数据异常，2017年7月28日认为近期将有6~7级地震发生。九寨沟地震发生后，经综合分析我们的三次预测，以及6—7月在四川茂县出现的多次滑坡事件，认为若将这些因素结合起来，将会是一个很好的短临预测方式。

Abstract:

An M_S7.0 earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, on August 8, 2017, before which we had made some predictions.According to the recurrence periods of 44 years and 7 years, we predicted in 2016 that an M7.5 earthquake will happen in Sichuan Province in 2017.On July 28, 2017, based on the geomagnetic anomalies observed by instruments, we predicted that an M6~7 earthquake was imminent.A retrospective analysis after the Jiuzhaigou earthquake shows that combining our prediction with the landslides that occurred in Maoxian County, Sichuan Province before the earthquake can result in a good impending earthquake prediction.Moreover, combining the date of the 1973 Luhuo earthquake with the recurrence period of 44 years and 180 days can lead to an accurate estimation of the date of Jiuzhaigou earthquake shock.