河北应变固体潮汐参数及震例研究

The Earthquake Case Studies of the Hebei Solid Tide Parameters

摘要:

选取河北省5个形变台站的观测资料，利用Venedikov调和分析法计算河北省境内M_S4.0以上的潮汐因子、相位等参数，发现应变潮汐因子对地震都有多则半年，少则几周的异常期。宽城台对河北省境内发生M_S4.0以上的地震中，震中距较其他台站最近（震中距最远为350 km、最近为100km），资料较好，故在综合分析河北应变台站的基础上，重点选取宽城台的应变潮汐因子对河北2005—2015年地震案例进行简要分析，发现该台对地震的对应率达到60%，虚报率40%，漏报率极低只有14%，前兆异常可信度较高，可作为前兆异常的参考。

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the deformation observation data of five stations in Hebei, we use VENEDIKOV harmonic analysis method to calculate the M_S > 4.0 earthquake phase and amplitude factor, tidal factor ect. We find that the strain tide factor of five deformation stations has a few weeks to half a year of abnormal period corresponding to the earthquakes. Kuancheng station has the shortest distance (the farest distance is 350 km, and the nearest distance is 100 km) from the epicenter of these M_S>4.0 earthquakes. Therefore, based on the comprehensive analysis of Hebei strain stations, we use the strain tide factor of Kuancheng station as key data to briefly analyzed the earthquake cases of Hebei from 2005 to 2015. The results show that the corresponding rate of the earthquake and Kuancheng station reaches 60%, the false rate is 40%, the omission rate is only 14%, and the precursory anomaly reliability is higher, which can be used as a reference for precursory anomalies.