2013年甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震及短临前兆的显现

Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 Earthquake in Gansu(2013) and Its Short-term and Impending Precursors

摘要:

简述了2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县M_S6.6地震的情况。该地震是1954年以来甘肃省发生的最大地震。本文对这次地震的短临前兆进行了综合论述与讨论,内容包括地震发生日与节气和朔望日的关系、地磁静日低点位移的回顾、低点位移的倍九日期回顾、异年倍七律方法的指标在临震日期预测的回顾、甘肃天水深井电阻率的短期前兆的回顾,最后讨论了综合预测的问题。

Abstract:

This study describes the situational characteristics of the Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 earthquake that occurred on July 22, 2013, in Gansu; this is the strongest earthquake felt in this province since 1954. We also review and discuss the short-term and impending precursors of this earthquake:(1) the relation between the earthquake occurrence date and the solar term and syzygy,(2) the displacement of the geomagnetic low point on a quiet day,(3) the multiplied nine days regularity after low-point displacement,(4) the prediction of the impending earthquake' s occurrence day using the "rhythm of multiplied seven days in different years" index, and(5) the short-term precursors of geoelectrical resistivity in a deep well at Tianshui station in Gansu. Finally, we discuss the problem of comprehensive prediction.