甘肃省清水井流量长期动态变化及映震效能研究

Earthquake Precursor Anomalies of Discharge Changes of Ligou Well,Qingshui

摘要:

计算了清水井流量的气压效率和相关系数,排除降雨和人为的干扰因素后提取了1985年以来中强地震前的异常变化信息。结果表明在祁连带多数中强地震前常出现气压效率的异常畸变现象,相关系数在一些地震发生前也会出现异常变化。并通过建立多元线性回归模型的方法定量研究得到适用于该井的地震预测模型,为地震三要素的定量预测建立新的方法。

Abstract:

We calculated the barometric efficiency and correlation coefficient of discharge changes of Ligou well, Qingshui, and extracted abnormal changes before medium and strong earthquakes since 1985 after excluding interfering factors of rainfall and human activities. The results suggest that anomalies of barometric efficiency often appear before most of medium and strong earthquakes in Qilian seismic zone and those of correlation coefficient also appear before some earthquakes. So we established an earthquake prediction mode which was fit for the well through studying multiple linear regression model, and it may provide a new method for quantitative prediction of three elements of earthquakes.