汶川巨震与玉树强震地气系统演变的对比分析

A Comparative Analysis on the Evolution of Earth-gas System between Wenchuan Earthquake and Yushu Earthquake

摘要:

分析了2008年汶川8.0级巨震和2010年玉树7.1级强震之前各月的3.2m地温场和降水场变化,发现它们均符合"强震孕育三步曲"。三步曲的时间点是:干热面积最大月(第一步):2006年8月和2009年6月;应变波始月(第二步):2007年7月和2009年7月;应变弱停月(第三步):2008年3月和2010年3月。2009年11月曾根据已得到的"孕震三步曲"规律,对玉树地震进行了预测,结果发震地点和时间均报错,仅震级报对,显示利用"孕震三步曲"预报地震还有很长的路要走。

Abstract:

The monthly 3.2 m-depth ground temperature and rainfall fields before the Ms8.0 Wenehuan earthquake in 2008 and the Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake in 2010 are analyzed separately. The earthquake-birth 3 steps law are found also before the two cases. The time nodes for each step started in for the two respective earthquakes were Aug. 2006 and Jun. 2009 with a largest dryhot area appeared for the first step, Jul. 2007 and Jul. 2009 with a strain wave beginning for the second step, and Mar. 2008 and Mar. 2010 with the strain wave ending for the third step. We had made an earthquake prediction for Yushu case according to the earthquake-birth 3 steps law in Nov. 2009, and the result showed that the magnitude forecasted was right but the location and the time were wrong. Therefore, though the earthquake-birth 3 steps is found, we still have a long way to make a prediction success.