甘肃氡突变型变化成因及其预报效能分析

Analysis on the Genesis of Radon Values Quick-change and Its Efficiency of Earthquake Prediction in Gansu Province

摘要:

氡的突变型变化是地震短临预报的主要依据。通过对甘肃省17个氡测点的突变型变化进行分析,发现引起氡突变的成因有干扰因素(温度、降雨、流量、观测仪器以及人为因素等)和地震。除5个测点干扰因素引起的氡突变比例比较高(≥50%)外,其它测点的成因大部分不明确。除连城水氡点外其它单个测点对应地震事件不明显。分区多井成组突变分析结果显示甘东南地区突变点成组项次达到5项并逐月增加可能会发生地震,而祁连山地区并没有此特征。

Abstract:

The quick-change in observing values of radon is a main base for short-impending earthquake prediction. Through analysis on the quick-changes of radon from 17 stations in Gansu province, it is found that the genesises of quick-change of radon are mainly disturb factors such as temperature, rainfall, water flow, apparatus et al. and earthquake. At 5 stations, most of radon quick-changes （ ≥ 50%） caused by disturb factors, and at other 12 stations most genesises are unacquainted. Except the Li- ancheng station, the quick-changes of radon have not obvious relationship with earthquake events at sin- gle station. But analysis on the group chick-changes in divided two regions shows that earthquake will maybe occur after the number of quick-change points being 5 in a month and increasing gradually in southeastern Gansu l~rovince. For Qilian mountain region, there was not this character.