甘东南地区震情预警指标模型及方案研究

Study on the Early Warning Index Model and Scheme of Seismic Situation in Southeast Area of Gansu Province

摘要:

依据甘东南地区中强以上地震活动及前兆异常特征,分别确定了判定时间、地点和强度的预测指标体系,并对各指标的预测效能进行了评估,据此建立了甘东南地区5~6级地震的中短期预报方案。在此基础上利用层次分析法确定了甘东南地区5级地震的震情指标预警模型。依据预警模型及指标分层结果,将各类定量和定性指标转化为以无量纲的1~4表示的指标值,按成对比较法比较下层各指标两两之间对上层某指标的重要程度,计算权重向量,并对模型的整体层次进行一致性检验。研究结果显示,甘东南地区5级地震的预警值为3.11,依据预警等级划分标准,若满足各项预测指标,则震情预警级别为红色。

Abstract:

According to seismic activity and precursor anomaly characteristics of mid-strong earthquakes in southeast area of Gansu province, the forecasting index systems for determing seismic time, site and intensity are confirmed separately, and the prediction efficiencies of each index are evaluated. Based on this work, we constitute scheme of M5 -6 earthquake medium-short term prediction in this area. Then using level analysis, early warning index system model of seismic situation about M5 earthquakes is en- sured. On the basis of the early warning model and leveled index, we translate all qualitative and quanti- tative index into non-dimensional parameters with 1 - 4, get importance of comparing substrate two adja- cent targets to a upper layer target using paired comparison, calculate cell weight vector, and check up the coherence of model＇s whole levels. The results show that the early warning value of M5 earthquake is 3.11 in the area, and by classification standards of early warning scale, early warning lever of seismic situation is red as if each forecasting index be satisfied.