地震影响空间危险度及危险区预测方法研究

Study on Spatial Seismic Effect Risk Degree and Seismic Risk Region Predicating Method

摘要:

根据地震目录统计分析一次强震对外围地区所产生的地震影响空间危险度,在此基础上结合区域地震背景空间危险度及其先发生的若干次强震,通过对研究区域开展地震综合空间危险度空间扫描计算对未来地震危险区进行预测。华北和西南地区地震危险区的实例预测表明,该方法具有一定预测效果,对于分析判定地震危险区可能具有一定的实际意义。

Abstract:

Based on the earthquake catalogs,the spatial seismic effect risk degree of a strong earthquake to external areas is calculated.Combined with the regional background spatial seismic effect risk degree and several pre-occurred earthquakes,the synthesis spatial seismic risk degree for the study area is calculated through scanning,which could be used to predicate potential seismic risk area.The seismic risk area predicating demonstrations in North China and Southwest China indicate that this method has a certain effects and may be of practical significance to seismic risk area predicating.