对新疆乌恰—喀什地区年度地震预测的总结与思考

Research and Ponderation Over the Efficiency of Annual Seismic Prediction for Wuqia--Kashi Region in Xinjiang

摘要:

在对新疆1973年以来年度地震预测情况进行综合研究基础上,重点分析了乌恰-喀什周围地区年度预测的阶段性特点,并对这一地区1900年以来M≥6地震和1972-2008年M≥5.5地震活动特征进行了的研究。认为对该区域地震活动规律性特点认识不足,没有遵循本地区地震活动的基本规律对地震趋势进行客观判断,是造成地震危险区预测效果较差的主要原因。依据地震活跃与间歇的特点认为2008年底开始乌恰-喀什周围地区将进入一个新的活跃时段,这一地区可能仍将继续被划定为年度强地震危险区。

Abstract:

Based on the predictive results of annual seismic risk regions in Xinjiang since 1973, the efficiency in different phases for Wuqia Kashi region is studied mainly, and the active characteristics of earthquake with magnitude Ms≥6.0 since 1900 and also the magnitude Ms≥75.5 from 1972 to 2008 are analyzed. It is considered that the earthquake prediction have not obtained finer results in the Wuqia Kashi annual seismic risk regions, and the reason was lack of correct recogninon to the seismic active regulations in this region. At last, according to the history earthquake activity characteristics, we predict that Wuqia Kashi region will probably start an active period since the end of 2008, and it may be carry out an annual seismic risk area continually.