昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动性异常特征

Characteristics of Seismicity Anomalies before Ms 8.1 Earthquake at the WeSt to Kunlun Mountain Pass

摘要:

利用地震活动图像演化动态跟踪、地震活动参数时间扫描及震群判定等目前较为成熟的地震预测方法,研究了2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动性异常。结果显示8.1级地震前地震活动性异常有序性明显,地震空区、地震条带、震群活动异常突出,且呈现配套特征。研究认为地震空区图像演化对揭示特大地震的孕育场有所帮助;大范围前兆震群活动是特大地震前多点应力积累、释放的前兆反应;结合地震活动参数扫描异常综合分析,特大地震前可能做出一定的中期-短期预测。

Abstract:

The seismicity anomalies before Ms 8.1 earthquake at the west to Kunlun Mountain pass in 2001 are studied by using the methods of tracing dynamic seismicity evolution patterns, the parameters time scanning and earthquake swarm determination, which are all commonly used in earthquake prediction. The results show that the seismicity anomalies were obviously in order, the anomalies for earthquake gaps, belts and groups appeared in same period. It is considere that the evolution of earthquake gaps patterns is helpful to study the large earthquake prepare field, the earthquake swarm are precursory reflect of muir-points stress releasing before large earthquake, and large earthquake could be predicted in middle and short-term through synthesis analysis to the seismicity parameters time scanning.