地磁空间相关法在河北省的应用研究

Application of the Method of Geomagnetic Spatial Correlation in Hebei Province

摘要:

通过对河北省境内8个地磁台站1981-2006年Z21地磁资料的相关分析,发现地磁Z21相关系数异常与河北省及邻区MS≥5.0地震有较好的对应关系:26年内共出现了符合判据标准的异常18次,在其后10个月内对应地震13次,应报15个,虚报3次,漏报2次。初步给出了适合该区域的地震预报参数。

Abstract:

By using the method of correlation analysis to geomagnetic data Z21 recorded in 8 geomagnetic stations in Hebei Province from 1981 to 2006. It is found that abnormal correlation coefficient have good relationship with the earthquakes of magnitude Ms≥5.0 in Hebei and neighboring area. In 26 years 18 abnormal events appeared, in which 13 events respond to Ms≥5.0 earthquake in 10 months. In this way, 15 earthquakes should be predicted, 3 were falsed for prediction and 2 were missed. A initial and quota parameter suitable for the earthquake prediction in Hebei Province is suggested.