地震危险性概率分析方法:存在的问题和纠正(英文)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis： Problem and Correction

摘要:

地震危险性概率分析(PSHA)是目前最广泛应用于地震灾害与风险性评估的方法。然而它在计算中却存在着一个错误:把强地面运动衰减关系(一个函数)的条件超越概率等同于强地面运动误差(一个变量)的超越概率。这个错误导致了运用强地面运动误差(空间分布特征)去外推强地面运动的发生(时间分布特征)或称之为遍历性假设,同时也造成了对PSHA理解和应用上的困难。本文推导出新的灾害计算方法(称之为KY-PSHA)来纠正这种错误。

Abstract:

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis （PSHA）, the most widely used method for assessing seismic hazard and risk, contains an error in its hazard calculation; incorrectly equating the conditional exceedance probability of the ground-motion attenuation relationship （a function） to the exceedance probability of the ground-motion uncertainty （a variable）. This error results in using the ground-motlon uncertainty （spatial characteristic） to extrapolate occurrence of ground motion （temporal characteristic） or the ergodic assumption. This error also results in difficulty in understanding and applying PSHA. An alternative approach, called KY-PSHA, is developed to correct the error in this paper.