磁暴月相二倍法的计算发震日期与全球MS ≥ 7.5大地震的对应关系

CORRESPONDING RELATION BETWEEN THE PREDICTED TIME INTERVALS FROM THE TWO-TIME METHOD OF MAGNETIC STORM RELATED TO LUNAR PHASE AND THE OCCURRENCE OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES (M ≥ 7.5)OVER THE WORLD

摘要:

应用能量应变释放曲线和地震频次曲线对祁连山地震带M_S 5.0以上的20次地震震前中小地震活动演化过程进行了研究.结果表明:70%的地震在震中附近2°×3°范围内震前有明显的地震活动增强现象;地震活动增强持续时间约为6~12个月,其演化过程大致可划分为两种类型:A:背景→增强→平静→发震;B:背景→增强→发震.增强区能量释放曲线有明显的幂指数增长趋势.

Abstract:

From May, 1998 to January, 2001, there were 16 large earthquakes (M_S ≥ 7.5)over the world. Based on the two-time method of magnetic storm related to lunar phase, 15 earthquake corresponding time intervals (±5 days)can be computed, and among them 13 occurred in 11 computed time intervals. Meanwhile, other 2 computed time intervals, correspond to 2 earthquakes (7.0 ≤ M_S ≤ 7.4). The research result shows that the first magnetic storm with large storm index (K)correlate to the occurrence of M ≥ 7.8 large earthquake, and the magnetic storms occurred in the lunar phase demonstrate good correlation to the M ≥ 7.5 large earthquakes.