中国大陆西部及邻区地震时空分布特征及其强震趋势预测

THE SPACE-TIME DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF EARTHQUAKES AND TREND PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN CHINA WESTERN CONTINENT AND ITS NEIGHBORING REGIONS

摘要:

通过分析中国大陆西部及邻区地震活动的时空韵律性特征,较详细地研究了该区域的强震等间距、强震空带等间距的空间分布格局以及时间分布上的23a太阳活动准周期,同时探讨了活动期内主体活动区的迁移规律.综合考虑认为第5活动期的结束时间大约在2005年,主体活动区在天山带,未来几年内,该区可能会有相当于8级地震的能量释放.

Abstract:

Based on the space-time rhythmical features of seismic activity in West China and its neighboring areas,the authors study in detail the space distribution of the equally spaced strong earthquakes,strong earthquake belts and 23 years solar cycle in the regions and analyse migrating laws of the main active region in active periods.It is considered that the fifth earthquake activity period is over about in 2005,the main active area is Tianshan seismic belt and there may be energy release of a M_S ≈8 earthquake in the future several years.