对辽宁省岫岩地区2次5级以上地震的短临预报及思考

SHORT-IMPENDING PREDICTIONS TO TWO MS≥5.0 EARTHQUAKES IN XIUYAN OF LIAONING PROVINCE AND SOME THOUGHTS TO THE PREDICTIONS

摘要:

详细记述了对辽宁省岫岩地区1999年11月29日M_S5.4地震和2000年1月12日地震的短临预测过程及其依据.预测意见和地震实况对比表明:显著地震地方平太阴时分布特点是地震短临预报的一个较好的指标;一次较大地震发生后,其震后趋势的判定往往也是十分复杂的,需发挥综合分析的作用.某地区历史上的地震类型只能作为参考,一次地震的震型主要应根据该次地震本身的特点来判定.在对地震发生后趋势判定有较大分歧和较多疑点的情况下,不应过早地宣布这次地震已进入晚期的衰减阶段.

Abstract:

The short-impending predictions and their reasons to the M_S5..4 earthquake on Nov.29,1999 and M_S5.1 earthquake on Jan.12,2000 in Xiuyan of Liaoning province are written in detail in this paper.The comparison between forecasts and actual earthquakes shows that the distribution character of local mean lunar times of significant earthquakes is a better indication of short-immediate term forecast and the judgement of the trend after a large earthquake happened is often difficult and needs comprehensive analysis.We ought to judge the type of an earthquake based on the characteristics of the earthquake itself and the type of the earthqaukes in history may be only available for reference.We ought not to consider that the earthquake has been in the later weak stage if there are different views and some few suspicionsness of the earthquake sequence.