地震预报可能性的物理分析

PHYSICAL ANALYSIS ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTABILITY

摘要:

分析了岩石的破裂过程,认为地震是非线性系统失稳的结果.加卸载响应比反映了岩体趋近应力峰值的程度,其异常仅标志着某地区具有发生地震的危险性.指出临震预报的困难在于地震往往发生在应力峰值之后,同时还讨论了临震预报的可能性.

Abstract:

In the paper,some analyses about the failure of rocks are made.It is suggested that earthquakes are actually the instability of nonlinear system,and that load-unload response ratio (LU RR) reflects the closeness of rocks to the peak of stress and marks the danger level of some earthquake prone areas.It is found that the difficulty of impending earthquake prediction happens after the peak of stress.The possibility of impending earthquake prediction is also discussed.