南黄海6.1级地震后强震活动趋势的初步研究

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON TREND OF M≥6 EARTHQUAKE AFTER THE NANHUANGHAI M6.1 EARTHQUAKE IN 1996

摘要:

根据江苏 南黄海地区(31°～35°N,119°～123.5°E)1500～1996年M≥6强震资料,应用有序性分析、可公度性分析等方法,对1996年南黄海6.1级地震后强震趋势进行了跟踪预测研究.结果表明,未来M≥6强震可能发生在2002～2003年.

Abstract:

Based on data of strong earthquakes (M≥6) from 1500 to 1996 in Jiangsu Nanhuanghai region, the tracing prediction of M≥6earthquakes has been discussed by using the analysis of orderness,commensurability and cluster characters. The results show that the next M≥6 earthquake will probably occur during the period from 2002 to 2003.