大同遥测地震台网小震群活动与大同-阳高中强地震预报讨论

ACTIVITY OF SMALL EARTHQUAKE SWAR MS AND PREDICTION OF THE DATONG-YANGGAO MS 5.8 EARTHQUAKE

摘要:

根据大同遥测地震台网记录到的小震群资料,用组合模式理论^[1]对本区的小震群时空演化规律进行了分析研究。结果表明,对于1989年10月18日在本区发生的大同-阳高5.8级地震,利用震前小震群资料得出的预报震中与实际震中有较好的一致性。另外,通过震群与外因相关性的分析,对发震时间的预报也取得了较好的效果。

Abstract:

On the basis of microearthquake data recorded by the Datong telemetry network, the temporal and spatial evolution regularity of small earthquake swarms in the region is analyzed by using the combination pattern theory. The results show that the predicted epicenter is consistent with the real epicenter of the Datong-Yanggao M_S 5.8 earthquake occurring on Oct. 18, 1989. In addition, through the analysis on relation of earthquake swarms to external causes, the origin time is predicted better.