地震时空丛集程度的度量及震前异常特征初探

MEASURING OF CLUSTERING DEGREE IN TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHQUAKES AND INITIAL RESEARCH OF ANOMALY CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE EARTHQUAKES

摘要:

从Morishita空间丛集度出发,定义出其时间丛集度的表达式,并计算了几次大震前空间丛集度J_s和时间丛集度J_t的时间扫描曲线。从计算结果分析,无论是空间丛集度J_s还是时间丛集度J_t在大震发生前大都会出现高值异常。将J_s和J_t做了对比,从而对Morishita指数的含义进行了探讨,分析了各自的优缺点。结果表明,J_s和J_t可以做为一项地震活动性指标引入到地震预报中来。

Abstract:

In this paper, according to Morishita's spatial clustering degree, defined formula of temporal clustering degree and calculated time scanning curves of spatial clustering degree J_s and temporal clustering degree J_t before some large earthquakes. The results show that J_s and J_t have high value anomaly before large earthquakes. Compared J_s with J_t, discussed their features and analysed respective advantage and shortcoming. Obviously, J_s and J_t, as an index of seismicity, can be used to predict earthquake.