新疆及其邻区M≥7强震的预测研究

STUDY ON PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES (M≥7) IN XINJIANG AND NEARBY AREA

摘要:

新疆及其邻近地区M≥7强震活动在时间分布上具有明显的有序性。自1716年以来的21次M≥7强震存在着时间间隔为11、25、30、41和60年的有序值。利用强震活动时间的有序性结构,可对该区7级强震进行预测探索。本文同时还应用熵和经验分布函数,讨论了下次强震发生的地点和概率。

Abstract:

The repeated occurrence of time interval value is defined as temporal orderliness.Seismic activity(M≥7) in Xinjiang and nearby area possesses the temporal orderliness. 21 events(M≥7) since 1716 have occurred at intervals of 60,41,30,25 and 11 years. These values of orderli-ness can be used to predict the future M≥7 earthquakes.By using entropy and experiential dis-tribution function,we discuss the location and probability of the next strong earthquake. The result shows that there will be possibility of the occurrence of M≥7 earthquakes during 1996,2004 and 2015 in Xinjiang and nearby area.