基于非线性自激振动指数自回归模型与地震活动研究

THE STUDY ON EXPONENTIAL AUTOREGRESSION MODEL ORIGINATED FROM NON-LINEAR AUTO-VIBRATION AND SEISMICITY

摘要:

地震活动表现出平静和活跃相互轮回的特征,发震频度和震级则表现出在活跃期维持相对较高的水平.而在平静期维持相对较低的水平。为了探索这种活动机制,本文用基于昨线性自激振动的指数自回归模型来研究这些特征。结论指出.指数自回归模型较好地反映了地震活动的前述特征,同时体现了本世纪以来地震活动的衰减趋势。借助非线性振动的思想和方法揭示地震活动的动力机制是有可能的。

Abstract:

The seismicity is characterized by the higher level in active period but the lower level in quiet for magnitude and frequency,and the interlace of these two periods.To study this mecha-nism,we used the exponential autoregression model which is originated from non-linear auto-vibration.The results show that the exponential autoregression model better reveals the preced-ing characters of seismicity,meanwhile the attenuation trend in this century is obtained.It is possible to expose the dynamical mechanism of earthquake according to the method of non-linear vibration.