灰色系统预测在地电预报地震三要素中的应用

APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM PREDICTION MODEL TO EARTHQUAKE PKEDICTION WITH APPARENT RESISTIVITY METHOD

摘要:

本文用灰色系统理论中的系统预测方法,分别建立震级M、震中距R、发震时间t_f与地电异常幅度U、持续时间Ｔ的灰色预测模型CM(1,3)。由于引入了GM模型,就避免了人为确定统计函数形式,并且在震例较少的情况下也可以进行三要素预报,这样就可以建立起适合各个具体台站的预测关系,预测结果较目前统一的预报公式要好。该方法所需资料少,计算简单,给出的结果简明实用。

Abstract:

In this paper,the authors applied the grey system prediction model of the grey system the-ory to set up respectively three grey prediction models (GM) of magnitude (M),epicentral dis-tance (R) and origin time (tf) versus apparent resistivity abnormal value (U) and lasting time (T).Because of introducing GM to avoid determining subjective statistical function,this modelis able to predict earthquake with less data at one geoelectric station,and afford different pre-diction equations for different stations. The Drediction effect is better than that of present someprediction equations, The advantages of this method are: requiring less data; simple calculation; clear result and practical.