扬铜地震构造带中强地震灰色预测

THE GREY PREDICTION OF MODERATELY STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN YANGZHOU-TONGLING SEISMOTECTONIC BELT

摘要:

本文用灰色灾变预测方法,以两次中强地震的间隔时间或历次中强地震发生时间作为原始建模数列,分别建立扬铜地震构造带Ms≥4.0和Ms≥5.0地震灰色预测模型。通过近年对该带中强地震发生时间预测实践,证明该模型的预测精度和效果均令人满意,说明灰色预测方法可以作为地震预报综合研究的内容之一。

Abstract:

In this paper,by themethod of grep catastrophic prediction,the seismic grey prediction models of Yangzhou-Tongling seismotectonic belt Ms≥5.0 and Ms≥4.0 are built respec-tively, according to the time intervals between two moderately strong earthquakes or the origin times of all previous moderately strong earthquakes. It shows that the prediction accuracy and result are pleasing,by the prediction practice in recent years;and the method of grey predic-tion can be one of comprehensive earthquake prediction.