全国震情会商会预报效能评分方法的研究

STUDY ON EVALUATION METHOD FOR PREDICTION ACCURACY IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLE FOR EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY CONSULTATION

摘要:

本文综合分析了自1976年以来全国震情趋势会商会的资料,对全国历年预报区分布及各区5级以上地震的发震概率作了统计。在此基础上对预报效能用12种评分方法进行试算和比较。结果表明,就目前的预报水平而言,评价全国会商会的预报效能以单项评分方法为好,二项分布检验和Fisher检验方法是较为合适的统计检验方法。本文还用上述方法对16年来我国的地震预报状况作了评价。

Abstract:

Having summarized the earthquake tendency opinions obtained from the National Assemble for Earthquake Tendency Consideration since 1976, we get that earthquakes with magnitude over 5 happened in a quarter of the prediction areas. The prediction accuracy in seismically active regions is greater than that in seismically inactive regions. About 17% earthquakes with magnitude over 5 in the Chinese continent happened in the predicted regions in the same year. The low level predictions is a blind prediction.
Having passed the practical calculation, we think that, the Individual Evaluation Method and the Hedike Evaluation Method are suitable to appraise the prediction accuracy and the binomial distribution test and the Fisher test are the suitable statistical test methods.