潜在震源区划分的不确定性分析

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL SEISMIC SOURCE AREA DELINEATION

摘要:

本文将潜在震源的不确定性分为震源类型与震源几何尺度的不确定性两类,用逻辑树方法概括了潜在震源区划分的各种可能方案,并据此给出了考虑潜在震源区划分不确定性的地震危险性分析的计算步骤。用本文的方法对上海市地震危险性进行了分析。

Abstract:

In this paper, uncertainty of potential seismic source is divided into two types, uncertainty of seismic source type and uncertainty of geometrical parameters of seismic source.The possible plans of potential seismic source area delineation for the studied area are presented by using logic-tree method, the computational steps of seismic hazard analysis. which considers the uncertainty of potential seismic source areas, delineation have been set up. Finally, uncertainty of potential seismic source area delineation in seismic hazard analysis for Shanghai city is discussed.