鄂尔多斯地块周缘及陕西地区地震活动的灰色预测

GREY FORECASTING OF THE SEISMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE REGION SURROUNDING ORDDS BLOCK AND SHAANXI PROVINCE

摘要:

本文应用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型研究了鄂尔多斯地块周缘及陕西地区地震的集发现象,分别建立了地震集发段的灰色预测模型,得出鄂尔多斯地块周缘Ms ≥ 5.5级地震的下一集发段为1987年至1994年,陕西地区Ms ≥ 4.0级地震的下一集发段为1990年至1995年。经内测检验,所建模型具有较高的预测精度。

Abstract:

In this paper,the clustering phenomenon of earthquakes in the region surrounding Ordos Block and Shaanxi Province has been researched using grey system theory.The grey forecasting models GM(1,1) for the clustering time-section in the two areas have been built respectively.The forecasting results show that the next clustering time-section of M_s ≥ 5.5 event is from 1987 to 1994 for the region surrounding Ordos Block and that of M_s ≥ 4.0 event is from 1990 to 1995 for Shaanxi Province.The testing results also show the models have higher precision.